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Call for participation in the debate: “Can Prospect Theory Explain Russia’s 2014 Annexation of Crimea?” Deadline: 30.9.2021
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Call for participation in debate “Can Prospect Theory Explain Russia’s 2014 Annexation of Crimea?” 30.9.2021
Since 2019, Dr. Julie Fedor (U of Melbourne), Dr. Gergana Dimova (U of Oxford), and Dr. Andreas Umland (Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) have been editing a series of special sections on the annexation of Crimea, within the ibidem Press “Journal of Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” (JSPPS): www.jspps.eu. See https://www.facebook.com/events/460801681761446. JSPPS is also distributed via Columbia University Press here: https://cup.columbia.edu/series/journal-of-soviet-and-post-soviet-politics-and-society
We invite junior and senior scholars to read, and comment on, the peer-reviewed forthcoming JSPPS paper (of which the text will be provided):
“Loss Aversion, Neoimperial Frames and Territorial Expansion: Using Prospect Theory to Examine the Annexation of Crimea”
By Dr. Ion Marandici, Department of Political Science, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick
Abstract: Why did Russia’s authoritarian leader decide to annex Crimea? Why could Ukraine’s politicians not resist the Russian aggression effectively? This study relies on prospect theory and new documentary evidence to illuminate the decision-making in Moscow and Kyiv that led to the takeover of Crimea. The paper assesses the scope conditions of prospect theory compared to alternative theories of foreign policy decision-making. First, it identifies the turning points of the Euromaidan crisis preceding the annexation and traces how Putin’s assessment of the status quo shifted repeatedly between the domains of losses and gains. In the domain of losses, the authoritarian leader, influenced by an imperial faction within the presidential administration, became more risk acceptant, annexed the peninsula, and escalated the hybrid warfare. In doing so, Russia’s president framed the intervention, using nationalist themes and drawing on salient historical analogies from the imperial era. Second, the analysis of new documents released by Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council (RNBO) and participant testimonies reveals that the decision-makers in Kyiv could not mount an effective resistance due to squabbles among coalition partners, the breakdown of the military chain of command in Crimea, the looming threat of a full-scale Russian invasion from the East, and the inflated expectations regarding the West’s capacity to deter Russia’s aggression. Third, the article relies on prospect theory to explain why after Crimea’s annexation, Putin refrained from continuing the territorial expansion at Ukraine’s expense, opting instead to engage in hybrid warfare and back secessionism in Eastern Ukraine. This account highlights the explanatory power of prospect theory compared to alternative frameworks, pointing out, at the same time, the need to incorporate strategic interactions, personality factors, and group dynamics in future studies of foreign policy decision-making.
We are looking for pronounced statements on Marandici’s paper of between approx. 800 and 5,000 words. If interested to add your comment to this debate, please, request the PDF of the paper from: firstname.lastname@example.org which we will send out in August 2021. Final texts need to be submitted until 30 September 2021 – preferably earlier.
As models for the formal style of your comment (footnotes, transliteration, quotes, etc.), please, refer to these open-access papers: Andrew Wilson, “The Crimean Tatar Question: A Prism for Changing Nationalisms and Rival Versions of Eurasianism,” JSPPS 3:2 (2017), https://doi.org/10.24216/97723645330050302_01 Maria Shagina, “Business as Usual: Sanctions Circumvention by Western Firms in Crimea,” JSPPS 5:1 (2019), https://doi.org/10.24216/97723645330050501_04
Either footnotes or the Harvard style can be used. We will only accept fully edited, properly referenced as well as well-formatted texts in perfect English, and cannot assist in preparing or editing comments. Please, fully list all texts to which you are referring to in the footnotes or bibliography. Please, do not send us half-ready articles. We cannot absolutely guarantee publication before receiving your text, but will be happy to publish all competent comments that tackle the issue, have some empirical, conceptual and theoretical grounding, are linguistically and stylistically publishable, as well as arrive in time. Contributions to this debate will not be peer-reviewed but treated like book reviews. Multi-authored texts are welcome too. Female contributors are especially welcome.
We may have a second round of debate in 2022, if interest in continuing this discussion is sufficiently high. We later intend to republish the entire debate, within a larger collected volume.
New volume in the ibidem-Verlag Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” by Lincoln Flake. With a foreword by Peter Martland. Distributed by Columbia University Press. To be listed with Scopus and Clarivate Web of Science book citation index.
russia #orthodox #churches #history #research #publication #publishing #society
On Western strategy towards #Russia: From ‘#Putinfirst’ to ‘democracy first’ – #AndriusKubilius in “European View” 2021
The article analyses two distinct approaches that Western leaders have taken to relations with Putin’s Russia. It argues that the dominant approach of fostering good relations with Vladimir Putin, prioritising these over support for longer-term democratic change in Russia, has not brought any results and is damaging the interests of Russian society, neighbouring countries and the West. The article analyses the prerequisites for deep change in Russia and argues that there is a need for the EU to comprehensively review and change its strategy towards Russia, putting democracy at its core. It discusses in detail the deterrence, containment and transformation elements of a new EU strategy. The article emphasises that the strategic approach of ‘democracy first’ in relations with Russia also relates to the future of democracy in general and should be a priority of EU–US cooperation.
Tables of @Publons-registered researchers in Russian & Ukrainian studies with most @WebOfScience Core Collection entries
Top 10 Publons-registered researchers in the fields “#Russia,” “#Ukraine,” “#RussianPolitics” as well as “#UkrainianStudies,” with the most entries in the Clarivate Web of Science Core Collection, as of 10 January 2021 (most of my entries listed here are book reviews). See: https://publons.com/researcher/?research_field=9279&is_core_collection=1&order_by=num_publications
TOC: Russ. Forum. Vol. 17: Germany & Russia, Donbas War, Ukrain. Decentralization, Literature, Populism, Poroshenko
Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры. 2020. T. 17. №№ 1-2
Open access: https://lnkd.in/dg-5iXQ
Contributions by: Marlene Laruelle, Valentyna Romanova, Leonid Luks, Vlad Mykhnenko and others.
Distributed by ibidem-Verlag.
Earlier “Forum” issues: https://lnkd.in/e5uAR22
Articles series on post-Corona Ukrainian international relations with Pavlo Klimkin. Part 3: June 2020
Pavlo Klimkin and myself recently started, within the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a series of jointly authored articles on Ukraine’s international relations, during and after the pandemic. The links to the Academia.edu PDFs of various versions of the articles published during April and May 2020 may be found here: https://umland.wordpress.com/2020/05/02/articles-series-on-post-corona-ukrainian-ir-with-pavlo-klimkin-part-1-april-2020/
Below are the titles of and links to further versions and translations of these texts published, in different editions, in French, English, and German, in June 2020. More such texts (including in Polish) are forthcoming.
The Coronavirus Crisis as a Critical Juncture for Ukraine and the World // Foreign Policy Blogs, 2020
La crise du Covid-19: un moment critique pour l’Ukraine et pour le monde // Regard Sur l’Est, 2020
Die Corona-Krise als Wendepunkt für die Weltpolitik und die Ukraine: Geopolitische Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf das internationale System und die ukrainischen auswärtigen Angelegenheiten // Portal für Politikwissenschaft, 2020
Predicting the Post-Pandemic World: “Deep Globalism” or Isolation? // Harvard International Review, 2020
Some additional oral reflections on our prognoses:
With Adam Reichardt Maciej Makulski: Talk Eastern Europe Episode 40: Will COVID-19 bring a new world order? // New Eastern Europe, 11 June 2020. neweasterneurope.eu/2020/06/11/talk-eastern-europe-episode-40-will-covid-19-bring-a-new-world-order/
Some additional articles by Pavlo Klimkin published in June 2020:
Східне партнерство у новій реальності: на що варто звернути увагу Україні // Європейська правда, 2020
Росія: що далі? Що чекає РФ після реінкарнації путінізму на референдумі, та до чого варто готуватися Україні // Дзеркало тижня. Україна, 2020 (with Volodymyr Ivanov)
A series of translated articles on the issue of Crimea’s return under Kyiv control, from June 2020:
Focus Online, 2020
Lietuvos nacionalinis radijas ir televizija, 2020
Emerging Europe, 2020
Atlantic Council, 2020
Дзеркало тижня, 2020
Зеркало недели, 2020
Andreas Umland, Dr. phil., Ph. D.
Articles series on post-Corona Ukrainian international relations, with Pavlo Klimkin. Part 2: May 2020
Pavlo Klimkin and myself recently started, within the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a series of jointly authored articles on Ukraine’s international relations, during and after the pandemic. The links to the Academia.edu PDFs of various versions of the initial two articles published during April 2020 may be found here: https://umland.wordpress.com/2020/05/02/articles-series-on-post-corona-ukrainian-ir-with-pavlo-klimkin-part-1-april-2020/
Below are the titles of and links to further versions and translations of these texts published, in different editions, in French, English, German and Russian. More such texts (including in Polish) are forthcoming.
Schöne neue Welt: Die Ukraine in der sich wandelnden Geopolitik // The European, 2020
How to Progress Ukraine’s Western Integration as a Prelude to Accession to the EU and NATO // Utrikespolitiska Institutet Paper, 2020
The Coronavirus Crisis as a Critical Juncture for Ukraine and the World: Deliberations on the Political Repercussions of the Ongoing Pandemic for International Relations and Ukrainian Foreign Affairs // New Eastern Europe, 2020
Die Coronakrise belegt einmal mehr, was die Ukraine bereits wusste: Die jetzige UNO funktioniert nicht // Ukraine verstehen, 2020
Some additional oral reflections on our prognoses:
With Martin Kragh: Ukraine’s Prospects for Integration with the EU and NATO // Swedish Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://soundcloud.com/user-312634401/ukraines-prospects-for-integration-with-the-eu-and-nato
With Volodymyr Yermolenko: How Is the Pandemic Changing the World and Ukraine’s Place in It? // Ukraine World, 2020. https://soundcloud.com/user-579586558/ep-25-how-is-the-pandemic-changing-the-world-and-ukraines-place-in-it