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Call for participation in the debate: “Can Prospect Theory Explain Russia’s 2014 Annexation of Crimea?” Deadline: 30.9.2021

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Call for participation in debate “Can Prospect Theory Explain Russia’s 2014 Annexation of Crimea?” 30.9.2021

Since 2019, Dr. Julie Fedor (U of Melbourne), Dr. Gergana Dimova (U of Oxford), and Dr. Andreas Umland (Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) have been editing a series of special sections on the annexation of Crimea, within the ibidem Press “Journal of Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” (JSPPS): www.jspps.eu. See https://www.facebook.com/events/460801681761446. JSPPS is also distributed via Columbia University Press here: https://cup.columbia.edu/series/journal-of-soviet-and-post-soviet-politics-and-society

We invite junior and senior scholars to read, and comment on, the peer-reviewed forthcoming JSPPS paper (of which the text will be provided):

“Loss Aversion, Neoimperial Frames and Territorial Expansion: Using Prospect Theory to Examine the Annexation of Crimea”

By Dr. Ion Marandici, Department of Political Science, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick

Abstract: Why did Russia’s authoritarian leader decide to annex Crimea? Why could Ukraine’s politicians not resist the Russian aggression effectively? This study relies on prospect theory and new documentary evidence to illuminate the decision-making in Moscow and Kyiv that led to the takeover of Crimea. The paper assesses the scope conditions of prospect theory compared to alternative theories of foreign policy decision-making. First, it identifies the turning points of the Euromaidan crisis preceding the annexation and traces how Putin’s assessment of the status quo shifted repeatedly between the domains of losses and gains. In the domain of losses, the authoritarian leader, influenced by an imperial faction within the presidential administration, became more risk acceptant, annexed the peninsula, and escalated the hybrid warfare. In doing so, Russia’s president framed the intervention, using nationalist themes and drawing on salient historical analogies from the imperial era. Second, the analysis of new documents released by Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council (RNBO) and participant testimonies reveals that the decision-makers in Kyiv could not mount an effective resistance due to squabbles among coalition partners, the breakdown of the military chain of command in Crimea, the looming threat of a full-scale Russian invasion from the East, and the inflated expectations regarding the West’s capacity to deter Russia’s aggression. Third, the article relies on prospect theory to explain why after Crimea’s annexation, Putin refrained from continuing the territorial expansion at Ukraine’s expense, opting instead to engage in hybrid warfare and back secessionism in Eastern Ukraine. This account highlights the explanatory power of prospect theory compared to alternative frameworks, pointing out, at the same time, the need to incorporate strategic interactions, personality factors, and group dynamics in future studies of foreign policy decision-making.  

We are looking for pronounced statements on Marandici’s paper of between approx. 800 and 5,000 words. If interested to add your comment to this debate, please, request the PDF of the paper from: andreas.umland@ukma.edu.ua which we will send out in August 2021. Final texts need to be submitted until 30 September 2021 – preferably earlier. 

As models for the formal style of your comment (footnotes, transliteration, quotes, etc.), please, refer to these open-access papers: Andrew Wilson, “The Crimean Tatar Question: A Prism for Changing Nationalisms and Rival Versions of Eurasianism,” JSPPS 3:2 (2017), https://doi.org/10.24216/97723645330050302_01 Maria Shagina, “Business as Usual: Sanctions Circumvention by Western Firms in Crimea,” JSPPS 5:1 (2019), https://doi.org/10.24216/97723645330050501_04

Either footnotes or the Harvard style can be used. We will only accept fully edited, properly referenced as well as well-formatted texts in perfect English, and cannot assist in preparing or editing comments. Please, fully list all texts to which you are referring to in the footnotes or bibliography. Please, do not send us half-ready articles. We cannot absolutely guarantee publication before receiving your text, but will be happy to publish all competent comments that tackle the issue, have some empirical, conceptual and theoretical grounding, are linguistically and stylistically publishable, as well as arrive in time. Contributions to this debate will not be peer-reviewed but treated like book reviews. Multi-authored texts are welcome too. Female contributors are especially welcome.

We may have a second round of debate in 2022, if interest in continuing this discussion is sufficiently high. We later intend to republish the entire debate, within a larger collected volume.

Articles series on post-Corona Ukrainian international relations with Pavlo Klimkin. Part 3: June 2020


Pavlo Klimkin and myself recently started, within the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a series of jointly authored articles on Ukraine’s international relations, during and after the pandemic. The links to the Academia.edu PDFs of various versions of the articles published during April and May 2020 may be found here: https://umland.wordpress.com/2020/05/02/articles-series-on-post-corona-ukrainian-ir-with-pavlo-klimkin-part-1-april-2020/



Below are the titles of and links to further versions and translations of these texts published, in different editions, in French, English, and German, in June 2020. More such texts (including in Polish) are forthcoming.


The Coronavirus Crisis as a Critical Juncture for Ukraine and the World // Foreign Policy Blogs, 2020


La crise du Covid-19: un moment critique pour l’Ukraine et pour le monde // Regard Sur l’Est, 2020


Die Corona-Krise als Wendepunkt für die Weltpolitik und die Ukraine: Geopolitische Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf das internationale System und die ukrainischen auswärtigen Angelegenheiten // Portal für Politikwissenschaft, 2020


Predicting the Post-Pandemic World: “Deep Globalism” or Isolation? // Harvard International Review, 2020



Some additional oral reflections on our prognoses:


With Adam Reichardt Maciej Makulski: Talk Eastern Europe Episode 40: Will COVID-19 bring a new world order? // New Eastern Europe, 11 June 2020. neweasterneurope.eu/2020/06/11/talk-eastern-europe-episode-40-will-covid-19-bring-a-new-world-order/



Some additional articles by Pavlo Klimkin published in June 2020:


Східне партнерство у новій реальності: на що варто звернути увагу Україні // Європейська правда, 2020


Пополнение на Минской площадке по Донбассу – верная, но бесполезная история // Ліга.net, 2020


Росія: що далі? Що чекає РФ після реінкарнації путінізму на референдумі, та до чого варто готуватися Україні // Дзеркало тижня. Україна, 2020 (with Volodymyr Ivanov)



A series of translated articles on the issue of Crimea’s return under Kyiv control, from June 2020:


Почему путинский захват Крыма носит лишь временный характер [unauthorized translation by InoSMI.ru]

InoSMI, 2020


Почему завоевание Путиным Крыма – это лишь временное явление [unauthorized translation by inoPressa]

InoPressa.ru, 2020


Bis Putin geht: Warum Russlands Annexion der Krim nur vorübergehender Natur ist

Focus Online, 2020


Kodel pokoronine Rusija galiausiai grazins Kryma Ukrainai

Lietuvos nacionalinis radijas ir televizija, 2020


Why Post-Corona Russia Will Eventually Hand Crimea Voluntarily Back to Ukraine

Emerging Europe, 2020


Крым может стать для Путина дорогостоящей обузой [unauthorized translation by inoSMI.ru]

ИноСМИ.ru, 2020


Crimea Could Become an Expensive Liability for Putin

Atlantic Council, 2020


Чи хочуть росіяни платити? Чому посткоронавірусна Росія зрештою поверне Крим Україні

Дзеркало тижня, 2020


Хотят ли русские платить? Почему посткоронавирусная Россия в конце концов вернет Крым Украине

Зеркало недели, 2020



Andreas Umland, Dr. phil., Ph. D.



Coll. vol.: The 21st Century Cold War: A New World Order? Ed. by Jeffrey Kaplan @Routledge

Image generated by GPL Ghostscript (device=pnmraw)
The 21st Century Cold War: A New World Order?
Edited by Jeffrey Kaplan. ISBN 9780367427863.
Routledge Politics, IR and Strategic Studies 2020.
176 pages.
The 21st Century Cold War is a multidisciplinary approach to understanding the pattern of Russian interference in the internal affairs of other nations, suggesting that what in the Cold War was a simple conflict of East vs. West has expanded into a conflict between Russia and two increasingly separate Wests.
The book begins with an examination of the structure of the Cold War and post-Cold War world, and subsequently explores Russian interference by overt, grey, and covert means including, but not limited to, cyberespionage, “fake news”, and the use of what in the Cold War would have been called front groups and agents of influence. The approach encompasses both historic and contemporary themes, with the question of whether the Cold War between East and West–capitalism and communism–is a thing of the past, or does it continue today in new ideological guises, as a central theme. Expert contributors explore what the motivations and implications for the pattern of Russian interference in the political processes of other states would be, and what new coalitions of actors are taking shape both for and against Russian activities. With a series of historical and contemporary case studies, focusing on the origins and contemporary dimensions of Russian information warfare, and exploring the issues involved from every perspective, The 21st Century Cold War will be of great interest to scholars of Security and Strategic Studies, International Relations, and Cold War History, as well as policy makers and security professionals. The chapters were originally published as a special issue of Terrorism and Political Violence.
T a b l e   o f    C o n t e n t s
Jeffrey Kaplan
1. The Wests: Decline Management and Geopolitics
David B. Kanin
2. More East than West: The World Council of Churches at the Dawn of the Cold War
Jeffrey Kaplan
3. Useful Idiots or Fellow Travelers? The Relationship between the American Far Right and Russia
George Michael
4. Russian Foreign Policy Management and Manipulation with the Soviet Successor States
Carol Lutz, Brenda J. Lutz, and James M. Lutz
5. Hybrid Warfare and the Legal Domain
Andres Muñoz Mosquera, Sascha-Dominik Bachmann, and J. Abraham Muñoz Bravo
6. Irregular Militias and Radical Nationalism in Post-Euromaydan Ukraine: The Prehistory and Emergence of the “Azov” Battalion in 2014
Andreas Umland
7. The Africa Policy of Russia
János Besenyő
8. The Asymmetric Approach in Russian Security Strategy: Implications for the Nordic Countries
Katri Pynnöniemi
The Editor:
Jeffrey Kaplan is a Professor at Habib University in Karachi, Pakistan, and the author or editor of 22 books and over 70 articles and anthology chapters on religious violence, millenarianism, terrorism, and oppositional religious movements. He is Book Review Editor for Terrorism and Political Violence.

Пригл. к подаче статей: 75 лет окончания Второй мировой войны || Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры. 2020. №№ 1-2(32)

russcover15 (1)


«Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры» http://www1.ku-eichstaett.de/ZIMOS/forumruss.html – русскоязычный научный журнал свободного доступа, издаваемый Институтом восточноевропейских исследований (ZIMOS) Католического университета г. Айхштетт, Бавария (http://www.ku.de/forschungseinr/zimos/). Информацию о журнале и архив прошлых номеров можно найти на сайте журнала: http://www1.ku-eichstaett.de/ZIMOS/forumruss.html .

Мы приглашаем авторов особенно к подаче исследовательских статей по теме «75 лет окончания Второй мировой войны». Мы также заинтересованы в статьях на другие темы «Форума», такие как история современных политических идей, сравнительная демократизация, религиоведение, формы и теория тоталитаризма, международные отношения Восточной Европы, связи и конфликты между Западом и Востоком и др.

Основные требования к рукописям: статьи должны быть основаны на результатах эмпирических исследований, обладать четкой структурой, ссылаться на все источники исследования и быть должным образом оформлены. Объем рукописей должен быть не менее 4,000 и не более 15,000 слов. Правила оформления статей можно найти здесь: http://www1.ku-eichstaett.de/ZIMOS/Vorgaben%20Forum%20RU.pdf . Редакция «Форума» также рекомендует авторам ознакомиться с правилами оформления рукописей на примере публикаций в последних номерах журнала на сайте http://www1.ku-eichstaett.de/ZIMOS/forumruss.html.

К подаче статей для спецсекции допускаются русскоязычные рукописи, которые ранее публиковались в не-русскоязычных научных или в печатных русских журналах или сборниках. В случае принятия таких рукописей к публикации, авторы должны самостоятельно обеспечить адекватный русский перевод и/или тщательное стилистическое оформление статьи или главы по указанным правилам, а также урегулировать вопрос о копирайте с издательством журнала или книги оригинальной публикации.

В качестве компетентных русских переводчиков с немецкого, украинского и английского языков мы можем порекомендовать филологов, которые ранее для нас переводили. Просим урегулировать все вопросы Вашей оплаты и редактирования русского перевода напрямую с переводчиком. Черновики русского текста, предоставленного переводчиком, должны тщательно проверятся автором, так как переводчик может не полностью понимать суть и тонкости узко специализированного исследования.

Последний срок подачи рукописей – 31 марта 2020 г. Выпуск номера планируется на осень 2020 года.

Редакция «Форума» просит авторов присылать рукописи в формате MS Word (DOC, DOCX) по адресам:
– Леонид Люкс | Leonid Luks (Институт восточноевропейских исследований, г. Айхштетт) leonid.luks@ku-eichstaett.de,
– Андреас Умланд | Andreas Umland (Институт политичной науки, г. Йена) andreas.umland@uni-jena.de.

Zentralinstitut für Mittel- und Osteuropastudien Eichstätt



Call for editor/s of coll. vol.: Comparing #WeimarGermany to Post-Soviet #Russia @ibidem11

ibidem logo
Call for one or more editor/s of an English-language collected volume to be published in the ibidem-Verlag Book Series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” listed with the Scopus Elsevier citation index and distributed by Columbia University Press:
The Book Series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” looks for one or more possible collector/s, editor/s, introduction author/s, organizer/s, formal style editor/s, contract partner/s and corrector/s of an English or English/German volume assembling various published and unpublished contributions to the discussion about the similarities and dissimilarities between the Weimar Republic/Weimarer Republik and Post-Soviet Russia.
This volume could include new or reprinted contributions by such experts as Leonid Luks, Stephen Hanson, Jeff Kopstein, Niall Ferguson, Stephen Shenfield, Peter Kenez, Alexander Yanov, Steffen Kailitz, Alexander Motyl, Marcel H. Van Herpen and others.
Would you alone, or in cooperation with one or more co-editor/s, be interested to prepare such a collected volume? If so, you would have to:
(a) collect the already published texts including those published by the Journal of Economic History, Post-Soviet Affairs, Nationalities Papers, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, Russian Politics and Law, and other relevant outlets,
(b) secure reprint permission from the outlets where the texts appeared first,
(c) unify the formal style of the various texts (i.e. edit their quotes, footnotes, transliteration etc.),
(d) publish in cooperation with me a Call for Additional Papers to be submitted within a short time,
(e) do all the communication with the chapter authors, ibidem-Verlag, and previous publishers, and
(f) sign the contract with ibidem-Verlag and secure contracts from all contributors.
If interested, please, write to andreas.umland@stanfordalumni.org with a brief bio and your idea about such a book.

Alexandr Dugin: Kreuzzug gegen den Liberalismus und Verbindungen nach Deutschland || @LiberaleModerne @Gegneranalyse


Gegneranalyse, 27. Dezember 2019
Die „Neoeurasier“ sind lediglich Teil einer weit größeren und hochaktiven „unzivilen Gesellschaft“ im heutigen Russland. Dugin agiert im Kontext der enormen Text-, Audio- und Videoproduktion verschiedener antiliberaler Publizistengruppen stärker auf der philosophischen Meta- als politischen Praxisebene. Er spielt eher eine Vorreiter- als Führungsrolle. Die 1968 entstandene Neue Europäische Rechte ist mit ihrem Projekt der Erlangung einer „kulturellen Hegemonie“ in Westeuropa bislang weitgehend gescheitert. Dagegen ist es Dugin und hunderten ähnlichen postsowjetischen Agitatoren seit 1991 gelungen, das politische und intellektuelle Zentrum Russlands nachhaltig nach rechts zu verschieben.

Russia’s Annexation of Crimea. Part I: Special section of the JOURNAL OF SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET POLITICS AND SOCIETY

JSPPS 5 1 2019.jpg

JOURNAL OF SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET POLITICS AND SOCIETY special section: “Russia’s Annexation of Crimea I.” Edited by Gergana Dimova (University of Winchester), Andreas Umland (University of Jena) and Julie Fedor (University of Melbourne). https://www.ibidem.eu/en/zeitschriften/journal-of-soviet-and-post-soviet-politics-and-society/journal-of-soviet-and-post-soviet-politics-and-society-14956.html


Gergana Dimova, “Legal Loopholes and Judicial Debates: Essays on Russia’s 2014 Annexation of Crimea and Its Consequences for International Law”

Agata Kleczkowska, “The Obligation of Non-Recognition: The Case of the Annexation of Crimea”

Dasha Dubinsky and Peter Rutland, “Russia’s Legal Position on the Annexation of Crimea”

Maria Shagina, “Business as Usual: Sanctions Circumvention by Western Firms in Crimea”


Håvard Bækken, “The Return to Patriotic Education in Post-Soviet Russia: How, When, and Why the Russian Military Engaged in Civilian Nation Building”

Melanie Mierzejewski-Voznyak, “Political Parties and the Institution of Membership in Ukraine”

Book Reviews:

Kiril Kolev on: Ognian Shentov, Ruslan Stefanov and Martin Vladimirov, “The Russian Economic Grip on Central and Eastern Europe”

Ana-Maria Anghelescu on: Alexander Cooley and John Heathershaw, “Dictators without Borders: Power and Money in Central Asia”

Vera Rogova on: Chris Miller, “Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia”

Elliot Dolan-Evans on: Marci Shore, “The Ukrainian Night: An Intimate History of Revolution”

Aleksandra Pomiecko on: Lawrence Douglas, “The Right Wrong Man: John Demjanjuk and The Last Great Nazi War Crimes Trial”

Aija Lulle on: Irene Kacandes and Yuliya Komska (eds.), “Eastern Europe Unmapped: Beyond Borders and Peripheries”

Abstracts for all articles, and full-text versions of all book reviews, can be accessed here: https://spps-jspps.autorenbetreuung.de/…/jspps/current-issu…

Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры. Т. 16: #РусскиеЕвропейцы #Евразийство #Евреи #Сопротивление #ПятыйПункт #Украина #1991год #Децентрализация

Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры
. 2019. №№ 1-2.


I. Русские европейцы (8)
Леонид Люкс
«Всегда движим живой заботой о судьбах России и Европы» – деятельность Федора Степуна в эмиграции на примере его статей в журналах Хохланд и Новый Град (1924-1940 гг.) 
Оксана Назарова
О методологии исследования «камерных» образцов философского творчества: на примере публикаций Семена Франка о Максиме Горьком 
Семен Франк
Максим Горький 
Семен Франк
Максим Горький и марксизм. На смерть писателя 18 июня 1936 года
II. История идей
Шохей Сайто
Николай Трубецкой и его этнографическое видение национальных меньшинств в Российской империи и за ее пределами (1905-1913 гг.)
III. История культуры
Людмила Дымерская-Цигельман
Томас Манн о еврействе, евреях и еврейском государстве
IV. Политология
Михаил Минаков
Выбор 1991 года: как украинцы оценивают выбор в пользу национального государства, демократии и капитализма 
V. Страницы новейшей истории
Игорь Баринов
«Создать новый дух белорусской нации»: жизнь и смерть Фабиана Акинчица
Борис Хавкин
Еврейское Сопротивление в нацистской Германии 1933-1945 гг. 
Илья Кремер
Дело Дипломатического словаря и «пятый пункт» в эпоху позднего сталинизма 
VI. Эссе
Андреас Умланд
Четыре геополитических измерения децентрализации Украины: как украинская реформа местного самоуправления повлияет на развитие постсоветских стран 
VII. Воспоминания
Мы строим московскую «линию Мажино»: воспоминания Ильи Кремера  223
Коротко об авторах

Verkehrte Welt? Überdurchschnittliche deutsche Maschinenexporte nach Russland seit Sanktionsbeginn 2014


Frage an Handelsexperten: Diese kürzlich von Alexej Hock in der WELT (https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article195200199/Sanktionen-Das-Russland-Paradoxon-im-Freistaat-Sachsen.html) veröffentlichte Graphik deutet einen statistischen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Wert der Exporte deutscher Maschinen nach Russland und dem Weltmarktpreis für Rohöl an. Wahrscheinlich kann man für viele russische Importwaren ähnliche Diagramme erstellen. Grund ist offensichtlich die enge Verbindung zwischen dem internationalen Ölpreis und der Devisenausstattung russischer Privatunternehmen sowie staatlicher Institutionen.
Ab 2014, dem Jahr der Verhängung von EU-Sanktionen gegen Russland, kommt es offenbar zu einem partiellen Aufweichen dieser bis dahin scheinbar engen Korrelation. Paradoxerweise sanken jedoch die russischen Importe deutscher Maschinen nicht stärker als der Ölpreis. Eine solche Abweichung hätte man von den Effekten der Sanktionen erwarten können.
Vielmehr weicht die Entwicklungskurve deutscher Exporte nach Russland ab dem Beginn der Sanktionen 2014 von der gesunkenen Ölpreiskurve NACH OBEN ab. Die deutschen Maschinenexporte sind – unter den Bedingungen neuer strenger EU-Handelsbeschränkungen – anscheinend weniger stark gefallen, als es der damalige Einbruch des Ölpreises und dessen Auswirkungen auf die russische Kaufkraft aufgrund früherer Parallelentwicklungen erwarten ließ.
Hinzu kamen in dem Berichtszeitraum seit 2014 etliche politische Neuentwicklungen, wie die Krimannexion, Donbasinvasion, Syrienintervention, Türkeispannungen etc., die für Russlands Staat wahrscheinlich finanziell aufwändig waren und sind. Ebenfalls hinzu kamen etliche nichteuropäische Sanktionen der USA, Kanadas, Australiens, Japans usw., welche vermutlich ebenfalls potentielle russische Finanzressourcen für Maschineneinkäufe im Ausland geschmälert haben.
Wie ist dieses Paradoxon zu erklären? Oder interpretiere ich diese Graphik falsch? Verkehrte Welt?

How Post-Imperial Democracies Die: A Comparison of Weimar Germany and Post-Soviet Russia | CPCS 52(2). With Steffen Kailitz, HAIT @TUDresden_de

How post-imperial democracies die: A comparison of and post-Soviet .
With Steffen Kailitz of the HAIT and in ‘s “ and Post-Communist Studies”
While socioeconomic crisis – like in Germany after World War I and in Russia after the Cold War – is a necessary precondition for democratic erosion resulting in a breakdown of democracy, it is not a sufficient condition. We identify, in the cases of Weimar Germany and post-Soviet Russia, a post-imperial syndrome that includes nationalist irredentism and an ambition to return to the status quo ante of a “great power” as a main reason why democratization faces specific and enormous challenges for former “great powers.” A slide back to authoritarianism in post-imperial democracies takes a high toll. It is facilitated by international political conflicts, including annexation and wars, with new neighbouring states that harbor territories perceived as external national homelands like the Sudetenland or Crimea.