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Die friedenspolitische Ambivalenz deutscher Pipelinedeals mit Moskau – eine interdependenztheoretische Erklärung des russisch-ukrainischen Konfliktes @Je_Sirius
Dieser Aufsatz führt einen wenig beachteten Aspekt der deutschen Ostpolitik der letzten 25 Jahren in die aufgeheizte europäische Diskussion darüber ein, wie man am besten mit Putins Russland umgehen solle. Ausgehend von der bekannten Interdependenztheorie wird argumentiert, dass durch die von Berlin geförderten zwei Nord-Stream-Projekte die russisch-ukrainischen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen gelockert und dadurch eine Konfrontation zwischen den beiden postsowjetischen Republiken erleichtert wurde. Besonderheiten der überraschend friedlichen Entwicklung der Ukraine in den ersten zwanzig Jahren ihres Bestehens als unabhängiger Staat werden der Eskalation der Spannungen zwischen Moskau und Kyjiw in den Jahren 2013–2014 gegenübergestellt. Die Fertigstellung des zweiten Strangs der ersten Nord-Stream-Pipeline im Oktober 2012 wird als eine entscheidende Entwicklung angesehen, die dem Kreml gegenüber der Ukraine freie Hand gab. Die Verringerung der wirtschaftlichen Interdependenz infolge der Umleitung sibirischer Gasexporte in die neue Ostsee-Pipeline führte zu einem Territorialkonflikt zwischen der Ukraine und Russland, der an Entwicklungen erinnert, die zuvor in Moldau und Georgien stattgefunden hatten.

Articles series on post-Corona Ukrainian international relations with Pavlo Klimkin. Part 3: June 2020
Pavlo Klimkin and myself recently started, within the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a series of jointly authored articles on Ukraine’s international relations, during and after the pandemic. The links to the Academia.edu PDFs of various versions of the articles published during April and May 2020 may be found here: https://umland.wordpress.com/2020/05/02/articles-series-on-post-corona-ukrainian-ir-with-pavlo-klimkin-part-1-april-2020/
Below are the titles of and links to further versions and translations of these texts published, in different editions, in French, English, and German, in June 2020. More such texts (including in Polish) are forthcoming.
The Coronavirus Crisis as a Critical Juncture for Ukraine and the World // Foreign Policy Blogs, 2020
La crise du Covid-19: un moment critique pour l’Ukraine et pour le monde // Regard Sur l’Est, 2020
Die Corona-Krise als Wendepunkt für die Weltpolitik und die Ukraine: Geopolitische Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf das internationale System und die ukrainischen auswärtigen Angelegenheiten // Portal für Politikwissenschaft, 2020
Predicting the Post-Pandemic World: “Deep Globalism” or Isolation? // Harvard International Review, 2020
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Some additional oral reflections on our prognoses:
With Adam Reichardt Maciej Makulski: Talk Eastern Europe Episode 40: Will COVID-19 bring a new world order? // New Eastern Europe, 11 June 2020. neweasterneurope.eu/2020/06/11/talk-eastern-europe-episode-40-will-covid-19-bring-a-new-world-order/
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Some additional articles by Pavlo Klimkin published in June 2020:
Східне партнерство у новій реальності: на що варто звернути увагу Україні // Європейська правда, 2020
Пополнение на Минской площадке по Донбассу – верная, но бесполезная история // Ліга.net, 2020
Росія: що далі? Що чекає РФ після реінкарнації путінізму на референдумі, та до чого варто готуватися Україні // Дзеркало тижня. Україна, 2020 (with Volodymyr Ivanov)
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A series of translated articles on the issue of Crimea’s return under Kyiv control, from June 2020:
Почему путинский захват Крыма носит лишь временный характер [unauthorized translation by InoSMI.ru]
InoSMI, 2020
Почему завоевание Путиным Крыма – это лишь временное явление [unauthorized translation by inoPressa]
InoPressa.ru, 2020
Bis Putin geht: Warum Russlands Annexion der Krim nur vorübergehender Natur ist
Focus Online, 2020
Kodel pokoronine Rusija galiausiai grazins Kryma Ukrainai
Lietuvos nacionalinis radijas ir televizija, 2020
Why Post-Corona Russia Will Eventually Hand Crimea Voluntarily Back to Ukraine
Emerging Europe, 2020
Крым может стать для Путина дорогостоящей обузой [unauthorized translation by inoSMI.ru]
ИноСМИ.ru, 2020
Crimea Could Become an Expensive Liability for Putin
Atlantic Council, 2020
Чи хочуть росіяни платити? Чому посткоронавірусна Росія зрештою поверне Крим Україні
Дзеркало тижня, 2020
Хотят ли русские платить? Почему посткоронавирусная Россия в конце концов вернет Крым Украине
Зеркало недели, 2020
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Andreas Umland, Dr. phil., Ph. D.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7916-4646
Articles series on post-Corona Ukrainian international relations, with Pavlo Klimkin. Part 2: May 2020
Pavlo Klimkin and myself recently started, within the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a series of jointly authored articles on Ukraine’s international relations, during and after the pandemic. The links to the Academia.edu PDFs of various versions of the initial two articles published during April 2020 may be found here: https://umland.wordpress.com/2020/05/02/articles-series-on-post-corona-ukrainian-ir-with-pavlo-klimkin-part-1-april-2020/
Below are the titles of and links to further versions and translations of these texts published, in different editions, in French, English, German and Russian. More such texts (including in Polish) are forthcoming.
La crise du coronavirus, un moment critique pour l’Ukraine et le monde // EUtalk, 2020
Schöne neue Welt: Die Ukraine in der sich wandelnden Geopolitik // The European, 2020
How to Progress Ukraine’s Western Integration as a Prelude to Accession to the EU and NATO // Utrikespolitiska Institutet Paper, 2020
The Coronavirus Crisis as a Critical Juncture for Ukraine and the World: Deliberations on the Political Repercussions of the Ongoing Pandemic for International Relations and Ukrainian Foreign Affairs // New Eastern Europe, 2020
Brave New World: How the Pandemic Is Changing the International System and Ukraine’s Place in It // Ukraine World, 2020
Die Coronakrise belegt einmal mehr, was die Ukraine bereits wusste: Die jetzige UNO funktioniert nicht // Ukraine verstehen, 2020
Что делать Украине, Грузии и Молдове для продолжения западной интеграции в условиях мирового кризиса // JAMnews, 2020
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Some additional oral reflections on our prognoses:
With Martin Kragh: Ukraine’s Prospects for Integration with the EU and NATO // Swedish Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://soundcloud.com/user-312634401/ukraines-prospects-for-integration-with-the-eu-and-nato
With Volodymyr Yermolenko: How Is the Pandemic Changing the World and Ukraine’s Place in It? // Ukraine World, 2020. https://soundcloud.com/user-579586558/ep-25-how-is-the-pandemic-changing-the-world-and-ukraines-place-in-it
WORLD AFFAIRS: Call for Rebuttals on the Future of Ukrainian-German Relations

the editors of the SAGE Publishing, Scopus Elsevier-listed “World Affairs Journal,” founded in 1837 and located in Washington, DC, are prepared to consider publication of scholarly rebuttals to my recent essay, in the 183rd volume of WORLD AFFAIRS:
“Can Germany Become a Major Ally of Ukraine? Counterintuitive Deliberations on a Coming Partnership between Kyiv and Berlin”
See: https://doi.org/10.1177/0043820020906371
PDFs of the essay can be downloaded from Academia.edu and ResearchGate:
https://academia.edu/42184544/Can_Germany_Become_a_Major_Ally_of_Ukraine_Counterintuitive_Deliberations_on_a_Coming_Partnership_between_Kyiv_and_Berlin
https://researchgate.net/publication/339817378_Can_Germany_Become_a_Major_Ally_of_Ukraine_Counterintuitive_Deliberations_on_a_Coming_Partnership_between_Kyiv_and_Berlin
The WAJ’s editorial board would be ready to “consider any rebuttals, provided they are thoroughly formulated and referenced.” You would have to follow WAJ’s standards regarding its articles’ analytical, linguistic and formal style, and to provide some empirical data in your essay. Please, consult these submission guidelines:
https://journals.sagepub.com/author-instructions/WAF
Please, do not burden the World Affairs Journal with half-ready manuscripts or polemical texts that may be substantively relevant, but are, as such, not publishable in an academic outlet. Note also that the journal has no office secretary or technical editor who could take care of problems regarding your essay’s orthography, references, transliteration, punctuation etc. These issues need to be solved by yourself before submission.
Your text has to be submitted via this Clarivate Analytics submission site for which you will need an ORCID number:
https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/waf
After successful submission, you will have to go through several editorial rounds and approve the final pages for print.
Keep me in the loop if you decide to submit. However, I can not take part in writing any such rebuttals.
Cheers
Andreas
Russia’s Annexation of Crimea. Part I: Special section of the JOURNAL OF SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET POLITICS AND SOCIETY
JOURNAL OF SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET POLITICS AND SOCIETY special section: “Russia’s Annexation of Crimea I.” Edited by Gergana Dimova (University of Winchester), Andreas Umland (University of Jena) and Julie Fedor (University of Melbourne). https://www.ibidem.eu/en/zeitschriften/journal-of-soviet-and-post-soviet-politics-and-society/journal-of-soviet-and-post-soviet-politics-and-society-14956.html
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Gergana Dimova, “Legal Loopholes and Judicial Debates: Essays on Russia’s 2014 Annexation of Crimea and Its Consequences for International Law”
Agata Kleczkowska, “The Obligation of Non-Recognition: The Case of the Annexation of Crimea”
Dasha Dubinsky and Peter Rutland, “Russia’s Legal Position on the Annexation of Crimea”
Maria Shagina, “Business as Usual: Sanctions Circumvention by Western Firms in Crimea”
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Håvard Bækken, “The Return to Patriotic Education in Post-Soviet Russia: How, When, and Why the Russian Military Engaged in Civilian Nation Building”
Melanie Mierzejewski-Voznyak, “Political Parties and the Institution of Membership in Ukraine”
Book Reviews:
Kiril Kolev on: Ognian Shentov, Ruslan Stefanov and Martin Vladimirov, “The Russian Economic Grip on Central and Eastern Europe”
Ana-Maria Anghelescu on: Alexander Cooley and John Heathershaw, “Dictators without Borders: Power and Money in Central Asia”
Vera Rogova on: Chris Miller, “Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia”
Elliot Dolan-Evans on: Marci Shore, “The Ukrainian Night: An Intimate History of Revolution”
Aleksandra Pomiecko on: Lawrence Douglas, “The Right Wrong Man: John Demjanjuk and The Last Great Nazi War Crimes Trial”
Aija Lulle on: Irene Kacandes and Yuliya Komska (eds.), “Eastern Europe Unmapped: Beyond Borders and Peripheries”
Abstracts for all articles, and full-text versions of all book reviews, can be accessed here: https://spps-jspps.autorenbetreuung.de/…/jspps/current-issu…
Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры. Т. 16: #РусскиеЕвропейцы #Евразийство #Евреи #Сопротивление #ПятыйПункт #Украина #1991год #Децентрализация
Форум новейшей восточноевропейской истории и культуры. 2019. №№ 1-2.
http://www1.ku-eichstaett.de/ZIMOS/forum/inhaltruss31.html
Verkehrte Welt? Überdurchschnittliche deutsche Maschinenexporte nach Russland seit Sanktionsbeginn 2014
Frage an Handelsexperten: Diese kürzlich von Alexej Hock in der WELT (https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article195200199/Sanktionen-Das-Russland-Paradoxon-im-Freistaat-Sachsen.html) veröffentlichte Graphik deutet einen statistischen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Wert der Exporte deutscher Maschinen nach Russland und dem Weltmarktpreis für Rohöl an. Wahrscheinlich kann man für viele russische Importwaren ähnliche Diagramme erstellen. Grund ist offensichtlich die enge Verbindung zwischen dem internationalen Ölpreis und der Devisenausstattung russischer Privatunternehmen sowie staatlicher Institutionen.
Ab 2014, dem Jahr der Verhängung von EU-Sanktionen gegen Russland, kommt es offenbar zu einem partiellen Aufweichen dieser bis dahin scheinbar engen Korrelation. Paradoxerweise sanken jedoch die russischen Importe deutscher Maschinen nicht stärker als der Ölpreis. Eine solche Abweichung hätte man von den Effekten der Sanktionen erwarten können.
Vielmehr weicht die Entwicklungskurve deutscher Exporte nach Russland ab dem Beginn der Sanktionen 2014 von der gesunkenen Ölpreiskurve NACH OBEN ab. Die deutschen Maschinenexporte sind – unter den Bedingungen neuer strenger EU-Handelsbeschränkungen – anscheinend weniger stark gefallen, als es der damalige Einbruch des Ölpreises und dessen Auswirkungen auf die russische Kaufkraft aufgrund früherer Parallelentwicklungen erwarten ließ.
Hinzu kamen in dem Berichtszeitraum seit 2014 etliche politische Neuentwicklungen, wie die Krimannexion, Donbasinvasion, Syrienintervention, Türkeispannungen etc., die für Russlands Staat wahrscheinlich finanziell aufwändig waren und sind. Ebenfalls hinzu kamen etliche nichteuropäische Sanktionen der USA, Kanadas, Australiens, Japans usw., welche vermutlich ebenfalls potentielle russische Finanzressourcen für Maschineneinkäufe im Ausland geschmälert haben.
Wie ist dieses Paradoxon zu erklären? Oder interpretiere ich diese Graphik falsch? Verkehrte Welt?
Pulse of #Ukraine Forum ‘Our Cities, Our Future’, DSC Kyiv, 21-22 June 2019 #CivilSocietyCooperation @AA_Kultur
Motto
“Our Cities, Our Future: All Politics is Local”
Dates
June 21st-22nd, 2019
Deadline for registration
June 17, 23:59 – https://gpus-web.eu/projects/dsc-2018-2019/pulse-of-ukraine-forum/registration/
Venue
Conference Hall, “Our Kids” Centre at the Left Bank, Kyiv
Participants
Decision and opinion-makers, entrepreneurs and civic activists from Ukraine, other Eastern Partnership countries, Russia and the West
Working Language
English, Ukrainian
Forum 2019 Key Topic:
A phrase from US politics in the 1980s – “all politics is local” – is just as relevant in Ukraine today as it was in America back then. Cities are a driving force of economic prosperity and political progress, vital centres of democracy, and a focus of both social tension and community cohesion. Kyiv is a global city with an ancient heritage, and many modern challenges. Ukraine’s decentralisation, democratisation and urbanisation policies are big political and administrative tests. They also involve broader economic, social and even cultural consequences.
Different cities can be very different things. Urban planning policies and smart investment play a vital part in making our cities both dynamic and harmonious places to live in. Cities can be the source of both security and insecurity: centres of corrupt clan networks and criminal gangs versus pioneers of democracy and national reform projects; the context for individuals’ alienation and loneliness versus frameworks for citizens’ close interaction and strong community-building; causes of environmental pollution versus generators of sustainable growth and ecological innovation; the scene of inter-communal tensions versus platforms for inclusive policies and successful integration. Our Forum’s four panels and keynote debate will address these topics, bringing together discussants with very different professional profiles, interests and expertise. The concluding debate will challenge the alumni and audience to identify their priorities and set an agenda for the next generation.
Forum 2019 Specific Topics:
- Keynote debate: Populism and the challenge to liberal democracy
- Putting politics into practice: Global city planning in the 21st Century
- Culture, Heritage, Identity and Integration
- Smart investment: Jobs, Growth and Sustainable Development
- An Agenda for the Next Generation
Questions to be answered:
- How do we ensure that growth in cities is inclusive, not divisive?
- How can we balance safety and security, on the one side, with civil liberties, on the other?
- How should we address tensions between national, regional and city governments?
- How do we curb corruption and promote transparency?
- How will the next generation use new tools and smart investment to solve old issues?
The Pulse of Ukraine is a yearly forum organised within the framework of the Democracy Study Centre (DSC), a project founded by the German-Polish-Ukrainian Society (GPUS) and implemented in cooperation with the European-Ukrainian Youth Policy Centre with the generous support of the Federal Foreign Office of Germany.
The Forum’s objective, at a time when Europe is haunted by an uncertain future and rising illiberalism, is to bring together, connect and inspire young leaders and innovators, “idea-preneurs,” to strengthen their potential to build, defend and advance democratic societies. At GPUS, we believe that we can make a difference by promoting cross-border, cross-sectoral and cross-generational dialogue and collaboration which will enable us to better feel the pulse of our countries as well as times, and will help us build stable, modern and fairer societies.
Ukraine is a country on the move, working assiduously to overcome its Soviet past, and create conditions for a sustainable democratic future. It is on the front-line of the struggle for a united Europe, buffeted and challenged with an armed conflict on its territory. The Forum will highlight the challenges and successes on this path as well as seek to provide impetus for positive change.
The conference participants consist of young politicians, senior experts, grassroots activists, civic leaders, journalists, and entrepreneurs from Ukraine and abroad as well as donors, diplomats and representatives of international organisations and delegations to Ukraine.
The Forum is hosted by the DSC Fellowship including twenty four fellows and scholars organised within a framework of high-level and in-depth monthly working sessions, idea-labs producing mentored scholarly work, as well as ambitious civic initiatives in the sphere of civic education, distance learning and youth engagement in grassroots politics.
CfP: Russia’s Annexation of Crimea: Legal & Political Aspects III

Call for papers for a special section in the
Journal of Soviet & Post-Soviet Politics & Society:CfP: The History & Memory of the OUN – Part III // JSPPS 2/2020
