Pres.: Ukraine’s Six Future Security Scenarios, Milano, Italy, 23.10.17 16:00
Monday, October 23, 16:00-18:00 (available for interviews til 19:45)
Consulate General of Ukraine at via Ludovico di Brehme 11, Milan.
Interviews shall be arranged in advance. Please send your request to the email address firstname.lastname@example.org.
This roundtable continues the series of events under the framework of communication platform UA Diaspora 2.0 established for Ukrainian intellectuals in Italy, as well as other nationals interested in strengthening the relationships between Ukraine and Italy.
Ukraine’s Six Futures: Security Scenarios for an East European Pivot State
The preeminent strategic challenge that Kyiv faces during the next years in terms of nation-building and economic development will be how to provide for the state’s security against the myriad of hybrid war measures against Ukraine – above all against another escalation of the armed conflict in the country’s east.
There are six alternatives for the evolution of Ukrainian international embeddedness may or may not materialize in the foreseeable future. The probability of a realization of the first set-up, the grey-zone-scenario, in the foreseeable future is far higher than that of the other subsequently outlined scenarios. Five further trajectories – Finlandization, EU accession, NATO membership, Major Non-NATO Ally of the US & the Intermarium – involve the conclusion of a fundamental new treaty in Eastern Europe. While they are so far all more or less unlikely, they may become more probable in case of major novel developments within the domestic affairs or/and international relations of the various states and organizations involved in the so-called “Ukraine Crisis.”
A brief summary of the lecture may be found here: http://hir.harvard.edu/article/?a=14536
Andreas Umland, CertTransl (Leipzig), AM (Stanford), MPhil (Oxford), DipPolSci, DrPhil (FU Berlin), PhD (Cambridge) held fellow- or lectureships at Stanford University, Harvard University, the University of Oxford, Urals State University, Shevchenko University of Kyiv, Catholic University of Eichstaett, and Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. Since 2014, he has been Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, Kyiv. He is a member of the academic advisory council of the European Integration Committee of the Parliament of Ukraine, co-editor of the web journal “Forum noveishei vostochnoevropeiskoi istorii i kul’tury” and general editor of the book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”. Personal web site: ieac.academia.edu/AndreasUmland