Will #Kissinger Advise #Trump to Accept #Putin’s Dismemberment of #Ukraine? A Warning @NucWeaponsNews
One hopes that Henry Kissinger, Donald J. Trump, Rex Tillerson et al. fully understand the stakes and risks at play. Acquiescing to Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine would further undermine, among other important agreements, the already shattered 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in view of the statements made by three NWSs – Russia, USA, UK – in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (and two separate governmental declarations by China and France). See on this: Mariana Budjeryn, “The Breach: Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and the Budapest Memorandum.” Wilson Center NPIHP Issues Brief 3 (2014). https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/issue-brief-3-the-breach-ukraines-territorial-integrity-and-the-budapest-memorandum
In addition, appeasement may not bring peace to the territory of the former USSR. Neither is it clear that Russia will remain satisfied with its current territorial acquisitions, as its apparent non-satisfaction with her protectorates in Transnistria, South Ossetia as well as Abkhazia showed (and note that Moldova’s 1994 constitution defines it as a permanently neutral country). Nor can it be taken for granted that Ukraine, with its hundreds of thousands of IDPs from Crimea and the Donbass, will simply resign to the dismemberment of its state, because Henry Kissinger/ Donald J. Trump tell her to do so. There would be more side-effects of an appeasement of Russian imperialism that increase rather than decrease the likelihood of new escalation in the post-Soviet space.
See also my previous statement on this: “The Ukraine Example: Nuclear Disarmament Doesn’t Pay.” World Affairs Journal 178:4 (2016): 45-49. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2790318