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Will there be a ruble crash tomorrow?


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I am not an economist, but would venture to speculate that the ruble could crash next week, perhaps, even causing something like a bank panic. We already had an “almost crash” of the ruble more than a year ago, yet back then not only the Iran sanctions were still in force, but also:
1. The Russian economy looked better than today.
2. Russia was not yet militarily engaged in Syria.
3. There was no Russian-Turkish conflict yet.
4. China’s stock market and growth rates looked better.
5. The Suez canal had not yet been expanded.
6. The US oil export ban was still in force.
7. In spite of the oil price decline, renewables developed well in 2015.

Whether these and other factors may be sufficient to cause a ruble crash, I do not know. But the next week will definitely be interesting.


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