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Towards a Regime Change in Russia: A Brief Prognosis


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Putin’s regime is on the verge of a deep transmutation or even full-scale transition. There are now so many things simultaneously going wrong in Russian domestic and foreign affairs that the current system will sooner rather than later break down, if it does not substantially adapt, fundamentally transform and eventually transit to a different regime, in the near future. The question is merely whether the revolution will come from below or from above.

The perception of a rapid accumulation of political, economic and social problems seems now to be spreading in Russia’s elite. So far the power vertical holds. My guess is that the current system, however, will not any longer exist by 2019, and either collapse or be replaced via guided transition, by liberal reformers, from above – perhaps, even much earlier.

Two of the many recent news leading me to this conclusion:
Над пропастью во лжи. 5 фактов, которые переврал Путин на пресс-конференции || The Insider – http://theins.ru/politika/17921
Выступление Председателя правления Сбербанка Германа Грефа на 383-м заседании Совета Федерации || Совет Федерации – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZYa5pFYQ70


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