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Pres.: What Happens to #Ukraine? #EuropeanSecurity & #Putin’s #Russia, Bucharest 30.9. 19:30


What Happens to Ukraine? The Russian Threat and the Future of East European Security

Presentation by: Andreas Umland, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Сooperation,

Casa Paleologu, Strada Armenească 34, 021046 București, România
Ziua Sâmbătă. Număr întîlniri 1. Ora de începere 19:30. Durata 2h. Onorariu total 70 lei

The preeminent strategic challenge that Kyiv faces during the next years in terms of nation-building and economic development will be how to provide for the state’s security against the myriad of Russian hybrid war measures against Ukraine–above all against another armed intervention by Moscow.
There are six alternatives for the evolution of Ukrainian international embeddedness may or may not materialize in the foreseeable future. The probability of a realization of the first set-up, the grey-zone-scenario, in the foreseeable future is far higher than that of the other subsequently outlined scenarios. Five further trajectories – Finlandization, EU accession, NATO membership, Major Non-NATO Ally of the US & the Intermarium – involve the conclusion of a fundamental new treaty in Eastern Europe. While they are so far all more or less unlikely, they may become more probable in case of major novel developments within the domestic affairs or/and international relations of the various states and organizations involved in the so-called “Ukraine Crisis.”

Cursul se ține în limba engleză.

Short summary of the presentation:

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Managing Russia’s Political War

In Moscow's Shadows

CHOREOGRAPHING-CHAOS---GRAPHICIn the year-and-a-bit that I was a visiting fellow for the European Council on Foreign Relations, I was working on a tetralogy of reports on different aspects of Russia’s “political war” (not a hybrid one, really) against the West: first looking at the intelligence services (‘Putin’s Hydra‘), next the use of the military with coercive intent (‘Heavy Metal Diplomacy‘), then Russian organised crime groups’ role in policy (‘Crimintern‘). For the final, capstone report, ‘Controlling Chaos: How Russia manages its political war in Europe,’ I have taken a look at how far the active measures campaign is truly coordinated (answer: sometimes, and often retrospectively), how unified the message (answer: there’s a core intent to divide and distract the West, but national goals, as in the figure below) and when it is, from where (answer: the Presidential Administration). I’m very pleased with this…

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Rediscovering Agency in #Belarus – #JSPPS 3:1 @ColumbiaUP #ibidemPress


[Feel free to forward and excuse any cross-posting.]
Fifth issue of the ”Journal of Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society,” Volume 3, Number 1, 2017
Published by ibidem-Verlag, Hannover/Stuttgart, & distributed by Columbia University Press, New York

General editor: Julie Fedor, University of Melbourne

“A New Land: Rediscovering Agency in Belarusian History, Politics, and Society”, guest edited by Felix Ackermann, Mark Berman and Olga Sasunkevich, and featuring articles by Lena Minchenia, Elena Gapova, and Svetlana Poleschuk.


Felix Ackermann, Mark Berman and Olga Sasunkevich:
In Search of Agency: Examining Belarusian Society from Below (available full-text via link below)

Alena Minchenia:
Behind the “Failed Revolution”: Becoming Patriots, or the Work
of Shame in Protesting Discourse in Belarus

Elena Gapova:
The Politics of the Belarusian Self: Performing Truth, Converting in Public

Svetlana Poleschuk:
“Communication Explosion” in Authoritarian Minsk: Public Lectures, Counterpublics, and Counterspaces


Andrei Liankevich:
Goodbye, Motherland!

Book reviews (all available full-text via link below):
Tatsiana Chulitskaya on Paulina Pospieszna;
Felix Ackermann on Aliaksandr Dalhouski;
Lizaveta Kasmač on Dmitri Romanowski;
Małgorzata Ruchniewicz on Iryna Kashtalian and Rayk Einax;
Paul Hansbury on Margarita Balmaceda;
Tatsiana Astrouskaya on Per Rudling;
Tamara Zlobina on Irina Solomatina and Tat’iana Shchurko;
Evgenia Ivanova on Volha Piotukh;
Manne Wängborg on Evgeniy Chernyshev;
Olga Bertelsen on Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister;
Aijan Sharshenova on Martin Brusis, Joachim Ahrens and Martin Schulze Wessel;
Karolina Koziura on Jacek Kurczewski.

A New Land
JSPPS 3:1 (2017)

Guest Editors: Felix Ackermann, German Historical Institute in Warsaw
Mark Berman, University of Giessen
Olga Sasunkevich, University of Gothenburg

General Editor and Issue Editor-in-Chief: Julie Fedor, University of Melbourne

Consulting Editor: Andreas Umland, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, Kyiv

Editors: Samuel Greene, King’s College London
Andrey Makarychev, University of Tartu

198 pages, Paperback. 2017
ISSN 2364-5334

Why Klitschko Is Not My Mayor Yet: Kyiv’s Public Transportation Remains Shabby

Andreas Umland

2013 9 22 Mit Klitschko

I am big fan of Vitali Klitschko, the boxing champion and the political leader. But I am much less impressed by Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Киев столица Украины. In almost three years, he has done very little to improve Kiew‘s public transportation system. As Vitali Klichko and Vladimír Klichko know German cities well, I thought they would be interested in bringing the Kiev Transportation Service closer to German cities’ rail and bus service level. But I now suspect that neither Vitali Klitschko nor Wladimir Klitschko actually care much about Public Transportation in either Deutschland or Україна – Ukraine. They have probably always used limousines with or without chauffeurs, and may not be aware of the advantages of good public transportation, as almost everywhere in Germany, and disadvantages of bad public transportation, as almost everywhere in Ukraine. My critique, in a nutshell: If Kyivites would…

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Disk.: #Putin’s #Russland, #Frieden & #Sicherheit in #Europa || #OSTEUROPA @HSFK_PRIF @UkraineOffice

Andreas Umland

titelbild_osteuropa_3-4_2017.400x0Disk.: Russland, der Frieden und die Sicherheit in Europa, in: Zeitschrift Osteuropa 3-4/2017

Matthias Dembinski, Hans-Joachim Spanger
Pluraler Frieden
Leitideen für eine neue Russlandpolitik

Karsten Voigt
Verhalten ändern, Vertrauen bilden
Moskau, der Frieden und die Sicherheit in Europa

Andreas Heinemann-Grüder
Wider den Sonderfrieden
Eine Replik auf das Konzept vom „Pluralen Frieden“

Oleksandr Sushko, Andreas Umland
Unrealistisches Szenario
Anmerkungen zum „Pluralen Frieden“

Jakub Eberle, Vladimír Handl
Völkerrecht statt Einflusszonen!
Der „Plurale Frieden“ fällt in altes Denken zurück

Stefan Meister
Wasser auf Putins Mühlen
„Pluraler Frieden“ = russlandfixierte Ostpolitik

Jan Claas Behrends
Ostpolitik ist europäische Sicherheitspolitik
Eine Erwiderung auf Dembinski & Spanger

Zeitschrift Osteuropa / Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung / Deutsche Gesellschaft für Osteuropakunde / Arbeitskreis Neue Ostpolitik / Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik

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The View from the Inside



“The weather is fitting.” Jamie echoed my thoughts about the weather this week at the dinner table the other night, right after I asked Anthony “Whose turn was it today?” The heavy clouds, threatening rain, and a general feeling of gloom mirror the gathering darkness around the Embassy since mid-August.  Facebook is full of posts from our friends and colleagues at the Embassy who were forced this week to give the news to hundreds of local employees that their employment for the United States had been terminated, in order to fulfill the demands of the Russian Government that the Embassy be drastically downsized by September 1st.

I have avoided posting about the situation, choosing instead to express sympathy and support for those who have to walk the halls of an increasingly quiet building, trying to maintain a somber demeanor, not laughing or bantering the way colleagues usually do, knowing that…

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Nord Stream 2 AG in Zug Schweiz, Als CEO: Ein Stasioffizier – kein Problem?


hier der handschriftliche Beweis,

der CEO der Nord Stream 2 AG in Zug, Schweiz, wird in den Stasi Akten als STASI-Offizier geführt, hier seine Verpflichtungserklärung von 1974.

Aus den Stasi Akten – CEO von Nordstream 2 AG Aus den Stasi Akten – CEO von Nordstream 2 AG

Wer in den Stasi Akten gräbt, findet weitere Beweise.

Heute sitzt der selbe Mann im Management der Nordstream 2 AG in Zug als CEO:

Management Nord Stream 2 AG – Zug pdf

Management Nordstream 2 AG Management Nord Stream 2 AG

Nord Stream 2 AG Management 2. Teil Nord Stream 2 AG Management 2. Teil

Nordstream 2 AG-CEO Warnig mit Freunden Nord Stream 2 AG-CEO Warnig mit Freunden

Ja richtig, der SPD-Politiker und vormalige Deutsche Bundeskanzler und Putin-Freund Gerhard Schröder sitzt ebenfalls im Management dieser AG:

Nord Stream 2 AG, Verwaltungsratspräsident Gerhard Schröder Nord Stream 2 AG, Verwaltungsratspräsident Gerhard Schröder

Das Netzwerk von Nord Stream 2 AG:

Nord Stream 2 AG, Netzwerk Nord Stream 2 AG, Netzwerk

Was bedeutet es, dass eine ausschliesslich den Interessen eines hoch korrupten Staates unter der Führung des Massenmörders Putin dienenden Gas Projektes durch einen ehemaligen Stasi…

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